News SteamSpy/PlayTracker: Horizon Zero Dawn sits at 200K-500K/~339K Estimated Owners after 3.5 days of release on STEAM

[AshenOne]

What is Steamspy?

As per the ABOUT page, here's what it says..

Steam Spy is Steam stats service based on Web API provided by Valve and cool idea of Kyle Orland from Ars Technica. Steam Spy automatically gathers data from Steam user profiles, analyzes it and presents in simple, yet beautiful, manner.

For more information on its working mechanism please refer to the ABOUT page i linked above!

DISCLAIMER:

Since Steam implemented its GDPR update in 2018, Steamspy's inaccuracy has grown and so has its margin of error but it still it seems like it has some credibility and reliability to it with its new algorithm but obviously that means that its range at which it estimates the owners will go wider and not as specific as its previous algorithm which had a 10% margin of error but using the 10x multiplier of concurrent player number peaks for these games along with this new algorithm does help it! So PLEASE take these owner estimates just... as estimates, neither as factual nor as official sales numbers of these games and with a grain of salt ofcourse!

What is Playtracker?

PlayTracker grabs data from all your linked platforms and displays all your games, achievements, playtime, and other available stats in one place.
Connect your Steam, PlayStation Network, XBOX Live, Origin, GOG, Overwatch, and Guild Wars 2 accounts with more to come in the future.

Now on towards the estimates...

SteamSpy Owner Estimates: 200,000-500,000
Playtracker Owner/Player Estimates: ~339K

Steam Launch Info:

• Launch Day Concurrent Players Peak: 56, 557
• 2nd Day Concurrent Players Peak: 49, 710
• 3rd Day Concurrent Players Peak: 49, 408
• 4th Day Concurrent Players Peak: 36 712
• All-Time Player Peak: 56, 557
• Release Date: 7th August, 2020
• Launch Price(US): $49.99 with it also having varied regional pricing across the globe
• STEAM Review Score currently: 62% Positive(Mixed) from 53% on Launch Day

Horizon Zero Dawn: Complete Edition SteamSpy Page:

https://steamspy.com/app/1151640

Horizon Zero Dawn: Complete Edition Playtracker Page:

https://playtracker.net/insight/game/61569

NOTE: Another point going towards how sometimes Steamspy can be STILL reliable is just a day ago when Fall Guys sales(2m) were announced, Steamspy had it at 2m-5m estimated owners already..so its still somewhat reliable IMO.

 

[ISee]

Was hoping for a bit more, but I guess those are good numbers after the mediocre user reviews.

By the way: Is Steam Spy able to deal with refunds? Not sure how many people refunded the game, but considering everything it could be a noteworthy number.

 

[Shahem]

That's more than I thought for Horizon. Very good numbers considering it's been out for a few days and reception is not good at the moment.

Bloodborne on PC is going to be MASSIVE.

 

[AshenOne]

Was hoping for a bit more, but I guess those are good numbers after the mediocre user reviews.

By the way: Is Steam Spy able to deal with refunds? Not sure how many people refunded the game, but considering everything it could be a noteworthy number.

Not sure on that aspect. It collects owner numbers from the player's public inventories and some other stuff that they do after the GDPR update on steam but yeah iam not so sure on the refunds bit.

 

[prudis]

Isnt like 3 days way too soon for trackers like this anyway?

 

[AshenOne]

Isnt like 3 days way too soon for trackers like this anyway?

For Steamspy, its not too soon from at least what Sergey said. Minimum 3 days. Either way if there is a drastic change i'll update this thread lol but i don't expect it.

 

[ISee]

If we guesstimate by reviews:

12336 x 20 = 246.720
12336 x 40 = 493.440
12336 x 60 = 740.160

Around 500k could be realistic. Which would be quiet successful in roughly four days.

 

[AshenOne]

If we guesstimate by reviews:

12336 x 20 = 246.720
12336 x 40 = 493.440
12336 x 60 = 740.160

Around 500k could be realistic. Which would be quiet successful in roughly four days.

Yeah if we also mutliply the launch day concurrent players count which was 56K.. it would be calculate to be around 500K owners/sales so yeah my guess is that steamspy is a little bit behind..but i'll see if it updates to 500K-1m tomorrow or in the next few days or not

 

[Shahem]

If we guesstimate by reviews:

12336 x 20 = 246.720
12336 x 40 = 493.440
12336 x 60 = 740.160

Around 500k could be realistic. Which would be quiet successful in roughly four days.

500K is clearly on the optimistic end of the spectrum. I can't see Sony being disappointed by those numbers, 3 years later + bad reception + a few days of sales.

What can they expect really ?

 

[Tomasety]

If we guesstimate by reviews:

12336 x 20 = 246.720
12336 x 40 = 493.440
12336 x 60 = 740.160

Around 500k could be realistic. Which would be quiet successful in roughly four days.

I believe steamdb reviews numbers aggregate cd-keys purchases on top of on Steam store. So, if we take this new value, which is 14.470 then we can guesstimate with a bit more optimistic results

14.470 x 20 = 289.400
14.470 x 40 = 578.800
14.470 x 60 = 868.200

I don't think the game has sold more than the average value and I'm being extremely optimistic considering refunds and poor port performance overall. Only thing I need to ask steamdb is, if their reviews number take into consideration refunded purchases, as there is a small dispararity between all review type numbers shown on Steam store (14.875) and steamdb (14.470)

 

[LittleDinamit]

PlayTracker is definitely still a bit behind, it takes our system more than a couple of days to fully sync and presumably the game kept selling reasonably over the weekend.

Given the trajectory it's heading on and the reviews, and concurrent numbers as people already mentioned, I anticipate around 500K after the dust settles.

EDIT: I'm the PlayTracker dev for those that don't know.

 

[Tomasety]

PlayTracker is definitely still a bit behind, it takes our system more than a couple of days to fully sync and presumably the game kept selling reasonably over the weekend.

Given the trajectory it's heading on and the reviews, and concurrent numbers as people already mentioned, I anticipate around 500K after the dust settles.

EDIT: I'm the PlayTracker dev for those that don't know.

Once thing for sure is that the game is being sold on third party stores at the lowest price of ~33€. That might push more sales and compensate the presumably mixed reviews effect on sales.

 

[Prodigy]

After how this port was done, that is not a bad number. They need to sort out the issues though, and try give it a second life.

 

[Ge0force]

I'd love to know the numbers for this game on EGS

 

[ISee]

I'd love to know the numbers for this game on EGS

I'd be surprised if it is over 10k.

edit:
Reading other reactions to this numbers. It's hilaroius. Should BB really arrive, reading the internet will be more amusing than playing the game.

 

[Shahem]

I'd be surprised if it is over 10k.

edit:
Reading other reactions to this numbers. It's hilaroius. Should BB really arrive, reading the internet will be more amusing than playing the game.

Let me guess. Usual suspects concern trolling over the PC sales ? How predictable.

 

[lashman]

 

[Prodigy]

Let me guess. Usual suspects concern trolling over the PC sales ? How predictable.

Haha, usual comments of it not being as good of sales compared to Playstation, so kiss PC ports goodbye.

 

[Shahem]

Haha, usual comments of it not being as good of sales compared to Playstation, so kiss PC ports goodbye.

I hope Sony will prove them wrong. They surely are aware PC could be a great market for their games.

 

[Panda Pedinte]

The number is higher than what I expected after they messed regional pricing.

 

[ISee]

Would it be fair to say that those are people who owned a PS4 and PC all along?
Because I'm not surprised that those people were not happy with the original thirty fps.

 

[Wereverine]

How do you determine someone double-dipped?

 

[LittleDinamit]

How do you determine someone double-dipped?

PlayTracker isn't just stats and estimates, we also offer a social network where users can connect all their various gaming profiles into one and have all their games and achievements in one unified profile and library. This overlap stat is coming from those connected libraries.

 

[AshenOne]

PlayTracker isn't just stats and estimates, we also offer a social network where users can connect all their various gaming profiles into one and have all their games and achievements in one unified profile and library. This overlap stat is coming from those connected libraries.

Hey btw, i think it would be a great idea if you guys could explain how exactly this system works in the about page than just 'we gather info from our registered users'. So when people plainly question about your methodology its much easier to reference the about page.

 

[LittleDinamit]

Hey btw, i think it would be a great idea if you guys could explain how exactly this system works in the about page than just 'we gather info from our registered users'. So when people plainly question about your methodology its much easier to reference the about page.

Are you referring to this about page? That's the one for Insight specifically - I am aware that it's very confusing to have multiple "About" pages, I'm still working out how to logically organize the three major components of PlayTracker (Social, Insight, Quest).

If that's the one you feel needs a more in-depth explanation, could you help me by specifying what you would like to see in a more elaborate answer, possibly in the form of questions I can answer? As the developer I have a hard time viewing it from a layman's perspective and not sure what to explain beyond what I wrote there which was kind of an attempt to TLDR.

 

[Phoenix RISING]

That's cool, I guess.

Yall are much more positive about these numbers than I am. I was expecting BIG, but I guess so close to Death Stranding, maybe not?

 

[Alexandros]

That's cool, I guess.

Yall are much more positive about these numbers than I am. I was expecting BIG, but I guess so close to Death Stranding, maybe not?

Well, the port is pretty bad so that kind of reduced the enthusiasm around the game.

 

[AshenOne]

Are you referring to this about page? That's the one for Insight specifically - I am aware that it's very confusing to have multiple "About" pages, I'm still working out how to logically organize the three major components of PlayTracker (Social, Insight, Quest).

If that's the one you feel needs a more in-depth explanation, could you help me by specifying what you would like to see in a more elaborate answer, possibly in the form of questions I can answer? As the developer I have a hard time viewing it from a layman's perspective and not sure what to explain beyond what I wrote there which was kind of an attempt to TLDR.

From a layman's perspective huh.. ok let me try

In playtracker threads people usually are the MOST interested in TWO things.

1. How the 'estimated players/owners' are calculated by Playtracker and what sort of algorithm is exactly behind the works and HOW it works...in detail!
2. This point is referring to your insight articles only. Like the ones that compare to other platforms like PSN, Xbox with Steam and see the percentages in player trends or how many players on X platform own the game on the y platform. The people would like to know in detail how you gather data on those OTHER platforms like PSN or Xbox Live and then how you compare them to STEAM. They intend on getting to know about the mechanism and algorithm behind this basically.

These two points are the most questions i get about playtracker from other platform owners that are not on PC or Steam owners. I hope this is good enough or close to it for you

 

[LittleDinamit]

From a layman's perspective huh.. ok let me try

In playtracker threads people usually are the MOST interested in TWO things.

1. How the 'estimated players/owners' are calculated by Playtracker and what sort of algorithm is exactly behind the works and HOW it works...in detail!
2. This point is referring to your insight articles only. Like the ones that compare to other platforms like PSN, Xbox with Steam and see the percentages in player trends or how many players on X platform own the game on the y platform. The people would like to know in detail how you gather data on those OTHER platforms like PSN or Xbox Live and then how you compare them to STEAM. They intend on getting to know about the mechanism and algorithm behind this basically.

These two points are the most questions i get about playtracker from other platform owners that are not on PC or Steam owners. I hope this is good enough or close to it for you

Thank you those are very good guidelines. I'll update the About page sometime this week since we're rolling out some changes to the estimate calculation system right now so that will be a good chance for it.

 

[AshenOne]

Thank you those are very good guidelines. I'll update the About page sometime this week since we're rolling out some changes to the estimate calculation system right now so that will be a good chance for it.

Good luck. Since SteamSpy has pretty much kept all the significant charts and numbers under patreon exclusivity i hope that Playtracker can be as or more than accurate and reliable than Steamspy. Also please try to keep all future charts and graphs related to STEAM Patreon free and not exclusive to it if possible. I really like diving into those.