News Ukraine-gate 2019

Jkm23

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Yes, this is a US politics based thread. I know this is a very international forum (which is AWESOME), so I understand that the events of the coming months will not have a direct effect on your countries internal politics. However, that does not mean that you can't ask questions or make a comment here, in fact, please do!

Long story short of how this started; US Intelligence employee submitted a whistleblower report to non partisan Inspector General of the Intelligence community. The report was credible and earmarked as an "Urgent Concern", which is a legal standard which requires its release to congressional intelligence committees. Partisan appointee, the Acting Director of National Intelligence has blocked the release of this report. Details have emerged that one of the key events is a phone call between Trump and the President of Ukraine, in which one of Trumps political opponents was discussed, with the possibility of quid pro quo relating to damaging information in exchange for military aid funding.

What is going on now; The speaker of the House has opened a formal Impeachment Inquiry. Basically, the collecting evidence and drafting of a formal impeachment 'charge'. From there, the articles of impeachment are drafted and it is voted on by the house. Being IMPEACHED does not equal REMOVAL FROM OFFICE.

What could happen; The house inquiry regarding impeachment could find there is insufficient evidence for impeachment, articles of impeachment could be drafted, voted upon and either pass or fail, the senate could refuse to hold the trial or delay, they could hold the trial and not convict or convict and remove the president from office. (This has never happened)

I'm at work and stuff and life so I'm not going to be writing about every new development/tweet, but you know, discuss away/ask questions.
Quick first bump update;

Transcript of July 25th call between US President and Ukraine's President


One thing to note, according to information know about the whistleblowers report and other reporting, this event was one in a series that lead to the whistleblower going to their superiors with this information.
 

ISee

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Before everything starts, Trumps feels the irresistible need to discredit both the EU and Germany. Understandable behavior from an ally.
Zelenskyy is willing to buy more missiles from the U.S. and Trumps tells him that he needs to do him a favor first, though. Then the us president rambles about Clintons email server and the Mueller report, he wants Ukraine to find the server. Zelenskyy is trying to kiss up to Trump by mentioning that he is using Trump Hotels and by buying from u.s. oil companies. Zelensky awaits Gilulianis arrival, way before Trump mentions something. It's clear that there were talks before this (also mentioned by the Ukrainian president). Trump wants the us attorney general and Giluliani to take part in the Ukrainian investigation. Zelenskyy wants the U.S Ambassador to Ukraine gone. Trump wants Biden to be part of the Investigation.

---

Did Trump try to pressure Zelenskyy into starting the investigation and to make specifically Biden a part of it? Yes.
Was Trump trying to send his goons to take part, dictate or maybe even lead the investigation? Yes
Is Trump misusing his presidential power to push his personal goals? Yes.

Will this bring him down? No.

Facts don't matter in the u.s. political sphere anymore (or maybe even WW). Transcripts are irrelevant. All Trump has to do is deny that he did something wrong during this telephone conversation, claim that everything was legal and that he wouldn't have released it if there was something wrong with it. Fox NEWs, Republicans and his Voters will support it. People are getting used to Trumps behavior. This transcript would have been shocking news during every other presidency. It's expected, standard monthly procedure for this presidency. Is anybody surprised that Trump is digging up dirt on his opponents by any means? That he is corrupt and a liar? We now have a document proving it, but it brought no new, opinion changing information to the public and it won't change his supporters opinion.

I understand that anti Trump voters are happy about this and that you see a light at the end of the tunnel. I wish it would be true, because Trump may not have influence on our internal politics, but his negative influence on international politics is undeniable.

I'm just not holding my breath.
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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Jul 12, 2019
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Before everything starts, Trumps feels the irresistible need to discredit both the EU and Germany. Understandable behavior from an ally.
Zelenskyy is willing to buy more missiles from the U.S. and Trumps tells him that he needs to do him a favor first, though. Then the us president rambles about Clintons email server and the Mueller report, he wants Ukraine to find the server. Zelenskyy is trying to kiss up to Trump by mentioning that he is using Trump Hotels and by buying from u.s. oil companies. Zelensky awaits Gilulianis arrival, way before Trump mentions something. It's clear that there were talks before this (also mentioned by the Ukrainian president). Trump wants the us attorney general and Giluliani to take part in the Ukrainian investigation. Zelenskyy wants the U.S Ambassador to Ukraine gone. Trump wants Biden to be part of the Investigation.

---

Did Trump try to pressure Zelenskyy into starting the investigation and to make specifically Biden a part of it? Yes.
Was Trump trying to send his goons to take part, dictate or maybe even lead the investigation? Yes
Is Trump misusing his presidential power to push his personal goals? Yes.

Will this bring him down? No.

Facts don't matter in the u.s. political sphere anymore (or maybe even WW). Transcripts are irrelevant. All Trump has to do is deny that he did something wrong during this telephone conversation, claim that everything was legal and that he wouldn't have released it if there was something wrong with it. Fox NEWs, Republicans and his Voters will support it. People are getting used to Trumps behavior. This transcript would have been shocking news during every other presidency. It's expected, standard monthly procedure for this presidency. Is anybody surprised that Trump is digging up dirt on his opponents by any means? That he is corrupt and a liar? We now have a document proving it, but it brought no new, opinion changing information to the public and it won't change his supporters opinion.

I understand that anti Trump voters are happy about this and that you see a light at the end of the tunnel. I wish it would be true, because Trump may not have influence on our internal politics, but his negative influence on international politics is undeniable.

I'm just not holding my breath.
To me, I don't like Trump. But, to have to go these lengths, to an official impeachment investigation that was basically forced by Presidental conduct, isn't great. Frankly the US doesn't look good here. Our electoral system brought him to power, machinations give him comfortable cover via the Senate (gerrymandering) and using the vast powers given to the president, he has stonewalled and protected his secrets. Trump is not the disease.

However, this thread is more about the facts and less about the structural issues that bring a President to power and the failures of the "checks and balances". Two things;

1: Acting Director of National Intelligence (acting means that they are appointed but not yet confirmed by senate) is going to testify in an open session in the house and then in a closed senate intelligence panel. Expect questions about why he prevented the original whistleblower report from going to congress but don't hold your breath for answers

2: Redacted version of the whistleblower report may be made public. Please note that this is not the only piece of the puzzle, as we have this report, call transcripts/perhaps tapes and the report from the Inspector General of Intelligence. Personally, it will be interesting to see but I'm not holding my breath for a smoking gun incident or the naming of names, just information on patterns of behavior.

Whistlerblower Report: https://intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/20190812_-_whistleblower_complaint_unclass.pdf

Acting DNI chief testimony:
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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So, besides all the bullshit that surrounds something like this, something officially actually happened


First subpoenas issued since the Impeachment inquiry was formed. Deadline is Oct 4th, or one week from today.

I would expect delays and I'd put a good chance that this subpoena will not be honored until its either dismissed or upheld in court.
 
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Phoenix RISING

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Both removal from office (two-thirds vote) and disqualification from running in 2020 (majority vote) are both in Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnel's backyard.

Our democracy is dead. We're going to impeach a president that might still win the next election, because he'll rally the troops that "They" are trying to get rid of him, and racist whites will come out and vote for him as a Last Stand before whites turn into a population minority.
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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Both removal from office (two-thirds vote) and disqualification from running in 2020 (majority vote) are both in Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnel's backyard.

Our democracy is dead. We're going to impeach a president that might still win the next election, because he'll rally the troops that "They" are trying to get rid of him, and racist whites will come out and vote for him as a Last Stand before whites turn into a population minority.
We've got a long way to go both in the election of 2020 and this investigation, which is less than a week old. I understand the frustrations and misgivings about the noise surrounding this as well as the state of the American electorate. It is too early to catastrophize about any of this. Shitton of noise can be generated by the sheer volume of news, political opinion and other media. It feels like it's been a month already.

On that note, nothing of actual investigative or procedural substance has occurred today. We re still waiting for apperances by state Dept officals and the requested files from the state Dept.
 
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Phoenix RISING

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We've got a long way to go both in the election of 2020 and this investigation, which is less than a week old. I understand the frustrations and misgivings about the noise surrounding this as well as the state of the American electorate. It is too early to catastrophize about any of this. Shitton of noise can be generated by the sheer volume of news, political opinion and other media. It feels like it's been a month already.

On that note, nothing of actual investigative or procedural substance has occurred today. We re still waiting for apperances by state Dept officals and the requested files from the state Dept.
Nothing?

I'd consider this a something. Since when is it considered etiquette to threaten civil war?

 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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Nothing?

I'd consider this a something. Since when is it considered etiquette to threaten civil war?

Meh, I don't see anything of true consequence in the narrow confine of the actual Impeach inquiry and any information about the Ukraine scandal.

Its more of the same, sound and fury, signifying nothing. We're not going to have a civil war and frankly I'd have lost my sanity years ago if I let tweet storms get under my skin. Tbh, who cares if a radical militant group (of like three families at best) cheers it on? The noise is a distraction.
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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We have a brand new Subpoena folks.


That PDF is a subpoena sent to Rudy Giuliani, sent by the Chairmans of the following house committees: Intelligence, Foreign Affairs and Oversight and Reform. Rudy has until October 15th to produce documents and transcripts/copies of his communications in relation to the "the phone call" as well as the scheme to pressure Ukraine into investigating Joe Biden.

I cannot forsee the future but I can see a court fight coming.
 

NarohDethan

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The fact that Clinton almost got removed from office for getting horny on main and that Trump has been dabbling with literal treason and nothing happens is a testament on how utterly fucked US politics are.
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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The fact that Clinton almost got removed from office for getting horny on main and that Trump has been dabbling with literal treason and nothing happens is a testament on how utterly fucked US politics are.
Its very early in the process, none of the subopena's issued even come into play until this Friday and no one has been deposed yet. And the only parallel between Clinton and now is the sharp partisan nature of the opening parts the investigation. The potential articles are closer to those that where going to pass against Nixon, such as Abuse of Power and potentially Contempt of Congress. (Nixon earned that one by withholding his infamous tapes)
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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The US Secretary of State will be defying the subpoena and blocking deposition of anyone he can.


This was expected and now the issue moves to the courts. There will not be a quick resolution to this.
 

Phoenix RISING

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Technically, Clinton wasn't impeached because he was horny, and that's a mischaracterization that pops up all the time. He was impeached because he lied about being horny while under oath.

Among other things, Bush should have been impeached for conducting illegal wars and war crimes.

Obama should have been impeached for conducting illegal wars and war crimes.

Trump should be impeached for conducting illegal wars and war crimes.

In fact like the last...13 or more presidents probably did something impeachable.

Honestly, all impeachment grumbling represents usually is how much the opposition party personally dislikes the president.
You wrote a lot to say the same thing NarohDethan said.

If you really want to be pedantic, illegal wars and war crimes go all the way back during the Kennedy admin and Vietnam, and every president since if you take the Cold War into consideration.

But no, Trump is particularly embarrassing.

The US Secretary of State will be defying the subpoena and blocking deposition of anyone he can.


This was expected and now the issue moves to the courts. There will not be a quick resolution to this.
OFC. Executive office has gone rogue.

More obstruction.
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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You wrote a lot to say the same thing NarohDethan said.

If you really want to be pedantic, illegal wars and war crimes go all the way back during the Kennedy admin and Vietnam, and every president since if you take the Cold War into consideration.

But no, Trump is particularly embarrassing.



OFC. Executive office has gone rogue.

More obstruction.
The State Department IG is set to meet with congress today. It is unknown what will be discussed. I'll edit this post when that meeting is concluded.

A note on this sort of speculation; no American president will ever be impeached for conducting military action. It is what it is.
 
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Phoenix RISING

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The State Department IG is set to meet with congress today. It is unknown what will be discussed. I'll edit this post when that meeting is concluded.

A note on this short of speculation; no American president will ever be impeached for conducting military action. It is what it is.
Of course not. Up until 1947, we had a Department of War. It's now called Department of Defense, but we all know what that really means.
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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Lotta noise and a ton of BS.

What happened yesterday of documentable importance is the following, Kurt Volker, former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine, was deposed by the three house committees (Intelligence, Foreign Affairs and Oversight. They wrote a letter and attached the now infamous texts in their full form with context.


If you are interested in this, its a must read.
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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I feel like in a non-white supremacist state, when POTUS said "Yeah I enlisted foreign aid to destroy corruption," he would have been ousted overnight.

Yet here we are.
As the President if the de facto head of their respective party, it takes a high barrier for them to turn against their leader. The US never got there with Clinton and it took many months and a lot of evidence for the GOP to get there with Nixon during a much less polarized time. These things... they take time. Even when they shouldn't.
 
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Phoenix RISING

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As the President if the de facto head of their respective party, it takes a high barrier for them to turn against their leader. The US never got there with Clinton and it took many months and a lot of evidence for the GOP to get there with Nixon during a much less polarized time. These things... they take time. Even when they shouldn't.
I'm not a "nothingburger" type of guy. Shoulda been impeached after Muller's redacted report.

Even though#45 is clearly unfit, feels timed so that he will be unelectable in 2020, rather than legit trying to get him out of office.
 

Li Kao

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Slightly OT but please bear with me as this is a question that I have had in mind since the whole clown show started.
What is the consequence of impeachment ? I evidently get the out of office part, but if it doesn’t go that far, what does impeachment do ?
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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Slightly OT but please bear with me as this is a question that I have had in mind since the whole clown show started.
What is the consequence of impeachment ? I evidently get the out of office part, but if it doesn’t go that far, what does impeachment do ?
Impeachment by itself is just formalizing the charges that Senate will try the President by. The specific charges are called Articles and are voted on by the entire house separately. Straight line majority vote.

The Senate can convict, remove and also bar the official (in this instance, the President) from seeking public office in the future. Conviction, removal and limits on future office are a 2/3 majority vote.
 
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Li Kao

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So is there no downside to impeachment if it doesn't pass Senate ? No limiting of power for example ?
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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So is there no downside to impeachment if it doesn't pass Senate ? No limiting of power for example ?
None. Although not a court of law, it's similar to being indicated by a grand jury, going through trial but found innocent by a jury.

Originally, the Senate was an appointed house of congress and it's intention was to act as a check on the whims of a popularly elected house of Co gress (the house).

The idea was a clear path to removal but high barriers to promote stability.
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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I'm bringing it back, just for today, because of the public hearings.

We're not at the trial stage yet, no formal article of impeachment has been voted on. TL:DR, impeachment is a political process and this is show designed to win over the American public to one side or another. The witness may be under oath but the questioners are not and no, Nunes can't be censured for what he's saying.
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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So... I haven't had time to absorb the hearing today, but considering most people were at work during the hearings and will shuffle off to their walled partisian media gardens tonight, this won't move the needle. Think about the following; if the Republicans have even the slightest chance of taking the Presidency in 2020 (it could happen, easily) then they will never convict. In America, Supreme Court appointments are for life and the GOP will have a chance to secure the court for the next 30 years. A conservative court, with its defense of gerrymandering, restrictive voting laws, ect, is instrumental to the GOP having a hold on power as demographics change. This isn't 1974, partisanship is completely dead. I had a small measure of hope that we could still call a spade a spade but its 50/50, still. The republicans got their sound bites, facts be damned. Sophistry at its finest and most effective. Hats off.
 
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Jkm23

Jkm23

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I think this is true, as long as the prevailing public opinion in swing states doesn't begin to shift.

If it does, is the Republican Party really going to force their representatives from those states to go down with the ship, and potentially lose the Presidency all together?

It'd have to get to that stage obviously, and maybe that's still unlikely. But I do think there's a world where opinion turns enough, at least in certain states, that it forces their hand with turning on Drumpf.
Yes. The chance to control the supreme court for a generation, the lobbying by corporate interests, (an aside, this is ESPECIALLY powerful in state legislatures and housemembers ) will force them. Republicans don't break rank.


https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/14/media/impeachment-hearing-fox-news-reliable-sources/index.html

This kind of distortion is incredibly difficult to fight. Simply put, the democrats suck at it.

Honestly, the whole thing sucks because its the Holidays soon and it'll be friend vs friend and family vs family for the next two months as this becomes in escapable and unbelievably ugly. People hate each other, no joke, straight up. Even I can feel it sometimes.
 
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