I think launch number discussion needs to be taken with a grain of salt. We have seen multiple big budget games that had "unprecedented numbers of trailer views" or "extremely positive reception from those who played it" and then fell flat on their face. Predicting how well a game does is honestly getting harder and harder, just as how it's becoming less and less clear what an actual effective advertisement is. Just in december 2023 you could see people talking about how Persona 3 Reload and Infinite Wealth releasing 1 week apart would have cannibalized both sales, and we saw what happened with them, and lets be serious, among Bamco latest anime releases who would have thought the last Gundam game would do better numbers than the last Jujutsu Kaisen, SpyxFamily, Naruto, One Piece, SAO and Sand Land games combined
I ultimately think when a game targets the correct audience it finds success. Maybe Metaphor will bomb, but personally I don't really believe it. I also think, among upcoming games that may surprise people, it's worth taking a look at Sparking Zero, Sonic X Shadow, SAO Fractured Daydream (I didn't believe in this title, but the demo numbers and discussion surprised me). I feel these games will have no trouble beating their predecessors