Discussion 2025 Steam peak CCU prediction thread

Arc said:
Doom the Dark Ages CCUs are really soft.
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Damn, you are not wrong. I expected even with gamepass the game would have a massive hype and go over 100K easily, but that seems very unlikely even on sunday.
 
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I'm very interested to see what Fantasy Life ends up getting. The game has been high in the top sellers list since a day or two before the deluxe edition launched and user impressions are extremely positive. It seems like it's going to be a hit for Level-5.
 
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Roadcraft and Fantasy Life doing better than Doom wasn't on my bingo card.
 
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There is so much money left on the table for good "Animal Crossing Likes" on pc, just like Sims-like as we saw with Inzoi
 
Results so far

May 2025
game - guess/prediction - result
DOOM The Dark Ages - 100k - 31.5k
Capcom Fighting Collection 2 - 10k - 3.1k
Yasha: Legends of hte Demon Blade - 2k - 781
RoadCraft - 30k - 33.7k
Fantasy Life i - 2k - 65k
Monster Train 2 - 30k - 18.5k
Mobile Suit Gundam SEED Battle Destiny Remastered - 1k - 3k
 
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edin said:
Mobile Suit Gundam SEED Battle Destiny Remastered - 1k - 3k
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images
 
Nightreign did 313k in the end. I predicted 200k.
Fuga 3 was 193 oof. I predicted 1k.
 
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Wow, sex sells even more than I expected and Stella Blade is doing more than twice my estimate (100K against 42K) and it's not even weekend yet. Reviews are universally positive too. ShiftUP is probably quite happy. I wonder if the money from PC version is split between them and Sony? Since Sony is listed as publisher for the PC version too (so it is not like Death Stranding which had different PC publisher). If that is the case, then this is the most successful singleplayer Sony game on PC with quite some margin.
 
Back to this after a few months. Games this month:

Sept 4
Hell is Us -
Hollow Knight Silksong -
Kemono Teatime -

Sept 5
Cronos: The New Dawn -
Daemon X Machina: Titanic Scion -
Everybody's Golf Hot Shots -
NBA 2K26 -
Shuten Order -

Sept 9
Bubsy in : the Purrfect Collection -

Sept 10
Garfield Kart 2: All You Can Drift -

Sept 12
Borderlands 4 -

Sept 15
LEGO Voyagers -
Little Witch in the Woods -

Sept 16
Henry Halfhead

Sept 17
Deep Rock Galactic Survivor

Sept 18
Class of Heroes 3 Remaster -
HYKE: Northern Light(s) -
Moros Protocol -
Platypus Reclayed -

Sept 19
Dying Light: The Beast -
Marisa of Liartop Mountain -
Towa and the Guardians of the Sacred Tree -
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter -
Baby Steps -
Blippo+ -
Slime Rancher 2 -

Sept 25
Aquapazza: Aquaplus Dream Match -
Mamorukun ReCurse! -
Silent Hill f -
Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds -

Sept 26
Atelier Resleriana -
Cladun X3 -
EA Sports FC 26 -
Hotel Barcelona -
Pac-Man World 2 Re-Pac -

Sept 30
Final Fantasy Tactics: The Ivalice Chronicles -
LEGO Party -
Nicktoons & the Dice of Destiny -
Train Sim World 6 -

Go wild.
 
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Hell is Us - 8K / 4,431
Silksong - 620K / 587,150
Cronos - 10K / 5,295
Borderlands 4 - 280K / 304,398
Dying Light Beast- 120K / 121,222
Silent Hill F - 20K
 
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Hell is Us - 25k
Silksong - 270k
Cronos - 8k

These are the 'big' ones for today. I'll edit in more later, maybe.

EDIT - Hot Shots Golf is out today as well. I'll go with 4k for that one.
 
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I'm a bit late but here are mh guesses

Sept 4
Hell is Us - 2.5k
Hollow Knight Silksong - 720k
Kemono Teatime - 1.2k

Sept 5
Cronos: The New Dawn - 12k
Daemon X Machina: Titanic Scion - 1.3k
Everybody's Golf Hot Shots - 700
NBA 2K26 - 8k
Shuten Order - 1.5k

Sept 9
Bubsy in : the Purrfect Collection - 900

Sept 10
Garfield Kart 2: All You Can Drift - 650

Sept 12
Borderlands 4 - 30k

Sept 15
LEGO Voyagers - 4k
Little Witch in the Woods - 2.5k

Sept 16
Henry Halfhead - 1k

Sept 17
Deep Rock Galactic Survivor - 45k

Sept 18
Class of Heroes 3 Remaster - 400
HYKE: Northern Light(s) - 980
Moros Protocol - 2.5k
Platypus Reclayed - 300

Sept 19
Dying Light: The Beast - 45k
Marisa of Liartop Mountain - 2k
Towa and the Guardians of the Sacred Tree - 690
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter - 9k
Baby Steps - 7k
Blippo+ - 1.4k
Slime Rancher 2 - 74k

Sept 25
Aquapazza: Aquaplus Dream Match - 809
Mamorukun ReCurse! - 740
Silent Hill f - 70k
Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds - 65k

Sept 26
Atelier Resleriana - 13k
Cladun X3 - 1.8k
EA Sports FC 26 - 300k
Hotel Barcelona - 1.2k
Pac-Man World 2 Re-Pac - 650

Sept 30
Final Fantasy Tactics: The Ivalice Chronicles - 900
LEGO Party - 22k
Nicktoons & the Dice of Destiny - 900
Train Sim World 6 - 450
 
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Okay well Silksong has claimed it's first victims.

Hell is Us peak is currently < 4k
Hot Shots Golf < 2k

It'll rise over the weekend probably but so far, those are pretty disastrous numbers.
 
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My Borderlands and Silksong prediction pretty on point, but it is a shame HiU and Cronos both underperformed even against my very low and conservative estimates.

Dying Light Beast today.
 
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Right, some new predictions.

Silent Hill - 27k
Sonic Mario Kart - 40k
Atelier - 3k
EA football - 125k
Final Fantasy Tactics - 7k

edin Get a list up for October

Bonus predictions

Yakuza 0 Director's Cut - 340
Yakuza Kiwami 3 - 225
 
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edin said:
Did you mean 22.5k for Kiwami 3? No way it is that low.
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Oh I missed this. No I expect it to bomba just like that Space Marine remake did. Overpriced remake of the least liked Yakuza releasing during the Q1 rush is going to flop I think. Also get the October (and even Nov) list up already!

Also cowards, get your predictions in :p
 
spindoctor said:
Oh I missed this. No I expect it to bomba just like that Space Marine remake did. Overpriced remake of the least liked Yakuza releasing during the Q1 rush is going to flop I think. Also get the October (and even Nov) list up already!

Also cowards, get your predictions in :p
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There's a greater chance of lashman buying you a Kill la Kill bluray than Kiwami 3 doing sub 5k on steam ccu
 
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Digimon nearly beat Metaphor. Crazy.

Here's October 2025 games. Formatted it easier so you all can just copy the games you want and add your prediction. If I missed something, blame mor.

Digimon Story: Time Stranger - 85k (Metaphor was 86k)

Battle Suit Aces October 7 -

Absolum - October 8 -

Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch October 9 -

Blue Protocol: Star Resonance - October 9 -

Ys vs Trails in the Sky Alternativ Saga - October 10 -

Battlefield 6 - October 10 -

Yooka Replayee - October 10 -

Pixeljunk Eden 2 - October 10 -

Little Nightmares III - October 10 -

Little Nightmares Enhanced - October 10 -

Dreams of Another - October 10 -

Lords of Ravage- October 15 -

Ball x Pit - October 15 -

Keeper - October 17 -

Fantasy Maiden Wars - Dream of the Stray Dreamer - October 20 -

Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines 2 - October 21 -

Ninja Gaiden 4 - October 21 -

Jurassic World Evolution 3 - October 21 -

Painkiller - October 21 -

Utawarerumono Zan - October 23 -

Full Metal Schoolgirl - October 23 -

The Lonesome Guild - October 23 -

Once Upon a Katamari - October 24

Duet Night Abyss - October 28 -

The Outer Worlds 2 - October 29 -

Dragon Quest I & II HD-2D Remake - October 30 -

Stray Children- October 30 -

Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage - October 30 big update -

Harvest Moon: Home Sweet Home Special Edition - October 30 -

Tales of Xillia Remastered - October 31 -

Mina The Hollower - October 31 -
 
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edin said:
Digimon nearly beat Metaphor. Crazy.

Here's October 2025 games. Formatted it easier so you all can just copy the games you want and add your prediction. If I missed something, blame mor.
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I see BF6 dominating till year end. Significant numbers for Jurassic World 3. Some success for Bloodlines 2, Outer Worlds 2, , Blue Protocol and Little Nightmare III, maybe Mina.
Haven't heard of many indie games here, so I can't say for them
 
Ok time for some more super educated random guesses

Battlefield 6 - 440k
Yooka Replayee - 2k
Little Nightmares III - 1k
Ball x Pit - 9k
Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines 2 - 35k
Ninja Gaiden 4 - 18k
Painkiller - 15k
Once Upon a Katamari - 8k
The Outer Worlds 2 - 18k
 
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I need to start using my brain before throwing out numbers. BF6 went over 500k in it's open beta that was very well received so of course the final release CCU was going to be bigger than that. And my dumbass guessed 440k peak :notlikethisblob:
 
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