Community MC Five-Year Time Capsule - Let's predict what will happen in the future

[Deku]

Current year is 2024. What gaming related event have happened by 2029?

Consoles
Today there are three major consoles:
Nintendo Switch. A rumored Switch 2 is coming next year
Microsoft Xbox Series S and Series X
Playstation 5, there is a rumored (?) Pro version coming later in Fall. Sony even released a handheld unit that can stream from PS5

PC
In the PC front there currently are:
Geforce 4000 series and Radeon 7000 series.
SteamDeck OLED version

---
Hardware wise
What will we see in in 2029? A new Playstation? Will Microsoft still continue with having own console, or will they release games for other consoles? Will Nintendo have an even more powerful console than Switch 2?

Software wise
Will AAA games still be a thing or will AAAA games take over? Will the indie market grow much larger than it is today?
Is live service still a thing or will it be long gone?

Companies
How will the companies be in five years?
Will Square Enix understand what the players want? Or will they still continue to make stupid decisions?
Will Epic Games still have it's own storefront? Has they thrown the towel yet? Or is it bigger than Steam Store?
Will other companies create their own storefront in order to keep all the profits by themselves?
Has Steam made stupid moves?



Let's go nuts with our predictions!!

 

[thekeats1999]

OK. So you want some five year predictions

MS

• Will no longer be making hardware,
• Will be all in on publishing.
• However will be parring there publishing down to "Core" titles.
• Due to mismanagement CoD will be on a downward spiral.

Sony

• There next console will have launched.
• However it hasn't surpassed PS5 numbers and looks like it is trending downward.
• There plan to release 5/10 GaaS service titles will have failed due to them canabilising sales from the previous titles or just being crap.
• The release cycle of PC games may not be day and date but they are getting closer and closer, maybe even less than a year.
• Sales are next to non-existant in Japan as the last holdouts have moved over to Switch 2 and PC releases as well.

Nintendo

• Switch 2 is a big success and bucks the trend of alternating hardware for Nintendo.
• All the last hold outs that have stayed away from Nintendo are back on there.
• They rule the roost in Japan. OK they pretty much do already, but they will be running rampant at this point.
• And yet nobody can beat their own sales, but I think the percentage won't be as favourable as it is now.
• Will generally carry on oblivious of what is going on in the market (a bit like the PC market)

PC

• Steam Deck 2 will have released and the trend of portable/hand held form factor PC's will still be rising. It still won't match console number but still a pleasant uptick.
• It will be the second best platform in some regions due to a mixture form factor of portables/pricing of the Deck
• Kingdom Hearts still isn't on Steam. Vanillaware still haven't released on PC.
• Nvidia has secretly been taken over by it's own AI. Still hasn't lowered the prices of their hardware as it is afraid it will get found out.
• Will generally carry on oblivious of what is going on in the market (a bit like Nintendo).

OK some of these are tongue in cheek. Some of these are if the companies involved carry on down the path they are currently going on.

 

[yuraya]

Still no Half-Life 3 but Valve will release Left 4 Dead 3 and it will be very good.
Still no Bloodborne on Steam
No Bloodborne 2
8k gaming will not be a thing
There will be a big new GaaS game that swallows up all other GaaS games. It will cause industry to briefly crash. There will be panic + doom.
Mainline Final Fantasy will return to turn based combat
Steam will reach 200 million MAU and 50 million concurrent daily peak.
There will be a Metal Gear Solid 6
Larian Studios will make another game that wins all the GOTY awards
Resident Evil will go to Outer Space
Dino Crisis will return and the game will be a flop
Minecraft 2 will be announced
There will be a big AAA game made almost entirely with the help of AI and it will be somewhat popular.
New games will be 80$
From Software will make a first person rpg
From Software will remake Dark Souls 2
No Elden Ring 2
Nintendo will release at least 1 big game on PC
Xbox will not release a new console but instead release a handheld
Apple will make dedicated gaming hardware

 

[Knurek]

Gabe Newell will die.

 

[STHX]

All right, there are a few things I want to try predicting, some bigger and some smaller

• Microsoft: They won't release a new normal console and the Xbox brand will disappear, but gaming will still be a big deal for them so they will continue to make games. Instead of a simple console, Microsoft will release a WindowsBox, a cheaper and gaming focused pc with a more limited windows version capable of running other stores (Steam, Microsoft Store etc) and social platforms. The WindowsBox will advertise itself as being capable of playing many types of games (Steam alone would give it access to Sony, 3rd parties and their own Microsoft games) as well as having multiple form factors (handled only like the Steam Deck, beefier and with a higher price for high end gaming and so on). But until that time comes Microsoft will continue to fumble the bag, and I expect many more studio closures unfortunately
• Sony: There will be a PS6 but it won't be an easy transition. There will be less and less day one exclusives as time passess and the Playstation brand will basically turn into a cheaper TV option for gaming, mostly targeting gaas or big budget "tv-like" experiences. To hammer this point Sony will hard pivot into a cross-media strategy: all of their major releases will coincide with movies, series and animations. Character models will be based on their TV actors and they will make it so that players will be able to watch those series/movies straight from the game, as an alternative to standard playing (targeting "gamer dads", "tired gamers" and people in general that don't have time or aren't willing to fully focus on gaming but still want to enjoy the stories) which will instead remain the focus on the others gaming platforms
• Nintendo: The Switch 2 will be successful but it will do worse than the first Switch, both because of a overall higher price point but mostly because Nintendo won't be able to escape the reality of modern gaming. Enhanced releases of current gen games will be common for the entire Switch 2 lifespan, and the increase in budgets will make it harder for their "smaller" ttles to fully recoup the costs. To recoup costs Nintendo will start releasing games on Steam (not a Nntendo launcher) but will use a completely different strategy compared to Sony and Microsoft and will instead only release single player games (so they will avoid having to work on crossplay and cross progression. No Mario Kart, Splatoon or Smash Bros on pc), games from series that sell less that 5 millions (the bigger focus will be on Fire Emblem and Xenoblade, but this category also includes games like Advance Wars, Another Code, Famicom Detective Club and similar who will have the biggest hurdles in surviving higher budgets) and lastly a slow drip of their back catalogue
• PC: Steam will still exist and will still be the biggest pc platform. Valve will release a Steam Deck 2 and an upgraded Steam controller. EGS will no longer receive major updates or will simply cease to exist. New GPU prices will be inflated for a few years but in the end will return to more acceptable prices especially since diminishing returns will make it harder for pc users to justify always getting the biggest and more powerful hardware. There will be an increase in "Steam exclusives", new releases (or rereleases) that will only release on Steam and never be ported to consoles or other storefronts, at least for the first year. This will be mostly focused on indie developers who want to maximize sales while minimizing costs (no need for ESRB or PEGI ratings, no need for someone who will need to publish a physical release) but will also be used by bigger publishers to "test" the enviroment for certain games. Previous examples include 1) Super Robot Wars 30 (released only on Steam to minimize the licence costs) 2) Warriors Orochi 3 Ultimate or the more recent Samurai Warriors 4DX (skipped console releases so no need for physical or additional ratings) 3) unpopular console genres or straight up impossible to release there (4X, grand strategy, cRPGs, visual novels, 18+ games). As this last point, with the increase of adult only games on Steam Valve will offer a new type of "adult" account as well as an "adult-only" storefront to separate 18+ games from the rest. Both games will still appear in the Steam library and Adult accounts will never be able to go back into being normal
• Industry/Economy: Companies will continue to fail in jacking up base game prices. Unfortunately this combined with long development times and high budgets will see even more layoffs. Companies that realize they simply can't compete in the AAA/AAAA space will instead specialize in smaller A/AA releases at smaller price points but with an increased focus on additional one time dlcs with no recurring gaas or FOMO elements. The objective is to slowly carve their own niche and then "exploit" them forever by continuing to release new games targeting those fans, without actually chasing endless growth (growth may still happen, but it will be a more gradual process and mostly brought forth by word of mouth). The biggest companies will struggle until the end of the generation while betting it all on...
• GTAVI: ...this game here. GTAVI will be the most important game ever released. Everyone's eyes will be on it, and it will most likely be the first game with a higher price point than 80 bucks + gaas and fomo elements. AAAA publishers will try to gain as many benefit as possible to try to reap the benefits of any extra console sales GTAVI will cause. Unfortunately GTAVI will not make its planned 2025 release, causing great troubles for all the publishers who hoped in the 2025 holidays to boost their financials. And even when it will release in 2026 the game will not easily make all of its budget back thanks to the current complicated economy as well as it's own extremely long development. If for some reason GTAVI "fails" despite selling multiple ten millions units at full price, well then the console industry will 100% crash. But even if it happens Nintendo and PC won't be impacted since GTAVI won't release on those platforms day 1, if ever
• And lastly, some smaller predictions to round off the post. 1) I believe less and less games will be region locked or only support a single language. Globalization but even things like AI will make it the easiest it has ever been for someone, no matter the country, to release their game to a worldwide audience 2) I believe the next SRW will be translated in italian (and many more languages), a first for the series. Steam clearly shows it did good, better than many games Bamco released and translated in many languages so they will try to maximize the new audience they found in the west. This is also an extension of the previous point, as asia-only releases like older SRW are simply no longer acceptable considering dev times and budgets, but thanks to the global audiences games like this will continue to exist 3) I believe that the next generation of gamers (post Fortnite/gaas) will be more perceptive to older titles and single player experiences. These things go always go in waves, and the generation after will likely go back to be gaas only. But thanks to platforms like Steam and older titles being playable on modern platforms (official rereleases, source ports, and modding) the next generations will have no trouble discovering older masterpieces, especially if new games take longer and longer to come out, and obviously the graphical race will no longer be the only thing people look at

 

[Arulan]

I see we have a thread.

Since we're throwing out 5 year predictions. Let's make some...

• Linux will have gained a foothold through its success on the Steam Deck, continued improvements, and the alienation towards Windows. Let's take a gamble and say it'll reach 5% on the Steam hardware survey.
• This period will be remembered similar to the early 2000s in the gaming industry. A lot of beloved developers will close their doors. AAs will become few and far between. There will be fewer AAA releases, but those that do release will be very safe. The difference between then and now is that indie developers will steal the show, even more than they already have.
• GTA VI will be a disappointment.
• The Elder Scrolls VI will be a disappointment.
• Arrogant Sony will be back.
• Microsoft will transition Xbox from a console to a software platform no longer tied to specific hardware. Sony will be in the early stages of doing the same.
• There is a quiet but steady resurgence of VR on PC.
• Obsidian begins development on a new Fallout title. Stay the fuck away from Obisidan Microsoft!
• Nintendo continues to be litigious assholes, and I will play their games on emulators anyway.

I hope you enjoyed my hot takes. See you in 5 years.

 

[Stevey]

It will be very similar to today.

PS6 will either be here or announced - no games.
Switch 2 will be here - same shit Nintendo games as always.
PC gaming will have no major need to upgrade as graphics have hit a brick wall.
STEAM will continue to grow.
Bloodborne on PC will still be a dream.

 

[Panda Pedinte]

Consoles

• Nintendo
  • Switch 2 will be a big success
  • There will be rumors about a Switch 2 Pro
  • The flagship Pokémon game will have bad performance
  • They will keep throwing their lawyers in emulation and pirate project

• Sony
  • Will keep releasing their games on PC
  • Bloodborne 2 announced or already released (lol)
  • PS6 will 2 years into it's life and costing around US$500
  • Layoffs at Bungie
  • Media Molecule closed

• Microsoft
  • Gamepass is going to be dead
  • Microsoft will have closed some of the studios it acquired previously
  • Their console will not outsell PS6
  • New Gears of War or a new Halo will have been released

PC

• Epic
  • UE6 will still have stuttering issues
  • EGS will be in it's last legs
  • Old Fortnite fans will complain about the direction the game took in the last year

• Valve
  • Steam will still be Steam
  • Half Life 3 released
  • Their new service game will be a success
  • New Steamdeck will have been released

General

• All the companies that acquired studios will have closed some of them
• Indies will still bring some interesting ideas to the table
• Ubisoft or EA will try to push US$90 games because the cost of developing will keep rising
• Nvidia will still be ahead of AMD in term of tech
• Intel will be a valid choice for GPUs

 

[Deku]

• Kingdom Hearts still isn't on Steam. Vanillaware still haven't released on PC.

This didn't age well

 

[thekeats1999]

Yeah. Definately not aged well. I just hope my prediction on Vanillaware is so disastrously wrong.

 

[lashman]

Yeah. Definately not aged well. I just hope my prediction on Vanillaware is so disastrously wrong.

nope, that one is definitely correct

 

[kio]

I have consulted the oracles and here's what they told me:

Microsoft

• Will release a new Xbox and sales will be disappointing. There will be 2 versions and will cost 700$ and 600$. The more expensive version will come with a controller and 6months of gamepass subscription.
• Starting in 2026, they will acquire a few more studios, as the dust will have settled by then
• InXile, Undead Labs and Double Fine will be shut down following failed releases
• They will try their luck in the handheld market with an ARM device. It will be decent but fail to gain a lot of market share.
• Gamepass basic monthly subscription will cost 30$ with ads and playtime limit

Sony

• Will release the PS6. It will be a dual-console ecosystem: handheld + tabletop. The bundle will cost 1000 USD or you could buy them separately, 400$ for the handheld and 700$ for the tabletop.
• Destiny 3 will be exclusive and it'll backfire massively
• Will abandon VR. Every studio associated with it will be terminated.
• Media Molecule and Bend studios will be closed
• Will acquire Super Giant Games and/or Hello Games

Nintendo

• The new switch will sell well but not as well as the first switch
• Fanboys will remain as insufferable as ever
• Will create a studio specifically to do PC ports of legacy software, gamecube and older.
• There will be a pokemon MMO with cross play between swicth 2 and mobile

PC

• Steam reaches 43M CCU
• Deck 2 won't be a gigantic leap forward specs-wise but will sell well regardless
• There will be talks about a Deck 3 and a possible external adaptable GPU/CPU combo dock that makes it a powerhouse
• Epic will acquire a couple more studios that release successful games on Steam
• EGS will be in maintenance mode

Mobile

• Following epic's legal battles, Valve and Sony will release successful storefronts/launchers in the mobile space.
• Epic will also release a store of their own but will fail to gain any significant market share.
• Nintendo will also create their own storefront. It won't be massive but it will generate enough revenue to keep them happy.
• Apple will release a special gaming ipad. It will cost 1500$ but there won't be any relevant software for it at release. It will still sell well somehow.

General

• Fortnite will still be relevant
• Massive layoffs at Bioware following the failure of Dragon Age 4
• Elder Scrolls 6 won't be out
• Skyrim will be re released again, with AI enhancements
• The newest RTX GPUs will be the 8000 series and the 8080 will cost 2000$
• Intel will have 30% of the market of the lower-end GPUs.
• AMD's CPUs will reign supreme with >60% of market share
• Kojima will be involved in a movie production, either as a director, producer or main writer. It will be unveiled at TGAs

 

[YunoLumi]

PC/Steam and Indie games still winning.

 

[Deku]

Going for game franchise prediction

Tomb Raider
Only one new mainline game was released under Embracer/Amazon flag. It's a massive AAA game. Sadly it flopped
Multiple mobile GAAS games are released to keep the franchise interesting, but none are massive hit

Final Fantasy
The third and final FF7 Remake is released. Square Enix has learned from their past mistake and in result the game sold better than the second game. But sadly it didn't meet the Square Enix' expectations with sales.
Square Enix will release spinoff FF titles either remastered or remakes

Mega Man
Another legacy collection is released. Mega Man Star Force series is the next to be released as a collection.
Hopefully yet another legacy collection will be released that contains spinoff Mega Man titles
Mega Man X9 is announced and it will be in the same vein as Mega Man 11
A new Mega Man series is announced