It is hard to guess what sales are like on EGS. All these years later and it is still unbelievably secretive. We rarely get actual sales numbers. If we get anything it is usually percentages or sales performance relative to other releases, which half of the time come with a lot more questions than answers. Or even better, we get the millions who redeem free games and nothing more.
If nothing else, it still seems like this blanket of secrecy is probably indicative of general sales. No doubt there are sale successes on EGS, but I have to imagine a lot of games struggle to find their place on the store since it seems like the store has targeted F2P and/or multiplayer audiences. To be fair, I think a lot of games quietly struggle on Steam as well, but I do not think those same games would be any better served on EGS and would likely not even be worth releasing on the store.
Last year I think I predicted 400MM+ in sales and was absolutely shocked that despite significantly more games releasing YOY, the 3rd party revenue was nearly flat. Me being so far off, I feel like it seems harder to predict going forward. It feels like there were even fewer exclusives and more sim ships, but nothing is jumping out as a title people talked about on EGS. Like Arc said, if anything increases 3rd party, it will likely be things like Genshin Impact and the like moreso most of the games releasing on the platform.