For a more serious answerI'm not sure about that. If we're going by
Metacritic then it's actually one point higher than Rebirth (while
Opencritic has Rebirth 1 point higher). From a critic point of view this means both games have the exact same chance. I argue Metaphor has more chances than Rebirth for 2 reasons: 1) it actually released later, and much closer to the TGA ceremony, meaning it's fresher in the minds of critics and 2) it released on more platforms, meaning even critics outside of the PS ecosystem have a chance to vote for it
Of course Astrobot is above them in both cases (no, a dlc expansion is not a new game, at most is part of the extended support. Elden Ring got its prize 2 years ago already) but if we're talking about TGA (as it's the one which is usually referred for the main GOTY prize) I can't think of a way Astrobot takes the main prize (but it will absolutely get platformer of the year or best PS release)
But here's the actual problem: by checking the
TGA GOTY list we can see the award doesn't simply goes to the best rated game of the year, but also to games that are good performers. Most games on that list are critically
and commercially successful (which makes sense since TGA is probably the most "commercial" award there is in this industry). ER and BG3 weren't simply rated high, they were part of the videogame discussion almost everywhere since their launch. People kept playing and buying both even months later their original release. This year there is actually an anomaly which for me makes the coming award season more interesting (since the past 2 years the GOTY was basically decided by summer): none of the top rated games of the year are very good sellers, meaning at least 5+ million or even more. Animal Well, Astrobot, Balatro, Like a Dragon IW, Metaphor, Rebirth, Tekken 8, Tsukihime, UFO 50. No matter how low you scroll the 2 lists above you will at most find something that sold 4 million, and most customers moved on after finishing the above games. We don't have Astrobot's numbers but come on, it didn't sell 5 million, we know that Rebirth did less than XVI and so it obviously didn't break the 3 million, and Metaphor is above 1 million, it will most likely reach 2 million or maybe even 3 when it's all said and done, but the 5 million is obviously a pipe dream, especially before 2025. But the 2 truly breakout successes of the year are 1) an early access game which could be legally removed from sale at any point in time in the coming months and 2) a game that sold 20+ million but to find its metacritic score you have to reach page 5 (at 102 in the rank!) of the top metacritic list. None of those 2 sound like GOTY material
And this is why this season is going to be very interesting, probably the most intertesting we will have in years. All bets are of