In that german dev roundtable thingy that was posted a while back, one dev who got an offer from Epic but refused implied that the egs contract might not be as simple as "you get a bunch of moneys day 1 and then nothing"), but rather paid out on a monthly basis. He didn't go into details, probably because NDA's and stuff and contracts could be different for different games, but might be worth keeping in mind.
Not sure if this would be better or worse than one big lump sum payment though. I guess better in the sense that you'll at least have some money each month even with 0 sales.
The issue with those contracts are the potential small print clauses.
And really, ANYTHING from it could be a pitfall for the dev
- The payment could be 1/12th of the maximum sum(*) every month for 12 months. Good? Hell no! If you were banking on a big payout from the first day sales, you are beholden to the trickle of money every month instead of 70 to 90% of the money on month 1 (if your game has no legs)
- the payment could be staggered based on the expected performance on Steam (like in the video, where he told that the starting negotiation point was their forecast of steam sales. So you could get 70% on month 1, 20% on month 2 and then 1% for every remaining month.
ANOTHER THING:
The contract payment could be based on the success of the game on the previous month. So lets say they told Tim they will sell 40% of their units in the first month and Tim pays out 40% of the exclusive money. And they stagger the rest of the sales in the next 11 months. Here comes the gut punch: There could be a clause, that the next payment is dependent on the sales of the previous month. Only if 80% of the expected sales were sold, will you get the next payout. They will never see more than 40% of the money if the game bombs.
We don't know if such contracts exist, surely not for the AAA titles. But it is a possibility, especially if Tim just wants to fatten his lineup but not empty his coffers. That could also be a reason why the exclusive lineup has thinned out, I don't believe that all of those devs suddenly grew an artistic spine and threw Tim out of the door because they uphold the freedom of PC gaming. There would be enough devs who would sell their souls.
Dev's can't talk openly about it, because of NDA's but they talk between each other and when they tell horror stories of only getting paid a pittance instead of millions because they didn't meet the sales criteria, more devs would be more wary about those exclusive contracts.
Tales from my ass, but Tim and Epic would be stupid if they don't have parachute and expectation clauses in the contracts. Anyone remember E.T. the game?