|OT| Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) news & discussion - No, it's not just a flu

ISee

Oh NO!
Mar 1, 2019
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Indonesia is adopting the similar method (we are ven importing the test kits from there), so hopefully the virus will be more contained here
Yeah germany too.

According to a leaked paper the lock-down will be uphold to prepare hospitals (as much as possible) and to build up testing till it reaches at least 200k/day (currently at ~500k/week). Probably for another 6 weeks, could be longer though.
Once that goal is reached and the infection rate is at a low point they'll start slowly opening things. But only in phases, like for example schools for 1-4th grade, a week later schools for 5-8th grade, followed by more and more shops, some restaurants etc.
Slowly and controlled, while putting individuals in quarantine like crazy, always prepared to roll everything back into total lockdown if things start getting out of control.

Problem is that a total lockdown can not be maintained till next year, when a vaccine should become available. That controlled isolation and exit strategy could be the reasonable thing to do. It is risky though and things could easily go very bad.
 
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kio

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Apr 19, 2019
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AFAIK, the U.S. highly increased their testing in the last couple of days. The current infection numbers are probably just a representation for what has been going on for a long time now. The number of deaths seems to be currently a better indication of how wide spread the infection is.

To give you an idea: Germany has half the number of reported infections, but the number of deaths is significantly lower (a fifth).

Very high testing capacities are important in general.
Quick, reliable and mass testing would allow for a different strategy: Find and isolate infected people asap, instead of having to shut down everything.

This kind of strategy seems to work pretty well in South Korea btw.
SK took a preventive approach while the whole western world is taking a reactive one. By the time someone is diagnosed he or she could've infected a dozen more people which in time may infect a dozen more. Add the large incubation period and what we're seeing now is the effect of the inaction that took place 3 or 4 weeks ago. Testing is good but it won't help to contain because it's already too spread out, it will only help to give insight to the real dimension of the problem. Massive testing worked in SK because they didn't ignore the first signs.
Plus, and I'll say this as an outsider with limited knowledge of their systems, their social security and health systems seem absolutely medieval and the real disaster might be the the aftermath of the shutdown that'll lead to millions of people not being able to pay mortgages, food, medicine or medical bills. The number of dead is just the tip of an enormous iceberg.
 

ISee

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Testing is good but it won't help to contain because it's already too spread out,
Yes and no. It could help if you manage to catch a up (a bit), but this would mean to lock down a country for months (because of the long possible incubation rate that you mentioned).
You'd also need anti body testing to check who was infected etc.
But contacted tracing, individual isolating, wide testing and only holding certain things on lock down could create a manageable situation then.
And not matter what, mass testing is important to know what is really going on. Even if it started re-actively.

SK was on top of the game though, there can be doubts. A lot to learn from there.

Plus, and I'll say this as an outsider with limited knowledge of their systems, their social security and health systems seem absolutely medieval and the real disaster might be the the aftermath of the shutdown that'll lead to millions of people not being able to pay mortgages, food, medicine or medical bills. The number of dead is just the tip of an enormous iceberg.
A president that seems to be set on opening the country before eastern, no matter what, is like a ignition cord to a big pack of TNT imo. It all seems to be set for disaster... but I'm also an outsider so hopefully I'm wrong.
 

Wok

Wok
Oct 30, 2018
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Definitely a lot to be learnt from South Korea's management of the virus spread.

A few other things which are intriguing to me are:
  • the still low mortality in Germany,
  • that Russia seems not much affected.
Finally, the situation in the USA is bound to get really worse, but what about Africa? There are many warnings that the virus is getting there too, with a delay due to fewer international airport transits.
 

ISee

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the still low mortality in Germany,
Started testing very early and constantly increasing testing capacities.
Nothing special going on. Countries with similar infection numbers, but higher death rates have probably more unknown infections than Germany.
Infection rates vs fatality numbers should start equaling in the coming months across regions.
 

Wok

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I was hoping that the solution was beer and vodka. :sweatrat:
Very mild symptoms if he is able to talk for more than 2 minutes without coughing at all.

Kind of scary how invisible symptoms can be on some people, which explains why massive testing (otherwise lockdown) is needed.
 
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Trisolarian

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I was hoping that the solution was beer and vodka. :sweatrat:


Very mild symptoms if he is able to talk for more than 2 minutes without coughing at all.

Kind of scary how invisible symptoms can be on some people, which explains why massive testing (otherwise lockdown) is needed.
I was talking to my dad and I said the mild symptoms thing freaked me out second most, after losing some else to this. Have it, barely know it and spread it... No good.

Also, can't the PM of the U.K. clean his smartphone/afford one with a better camera???
 

Wok

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I have seen that on Twitter. Apparently, that was 24 days ago. Maybe stop shaking hands, like doctors advise you to?

 
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Trisolarian

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ISee

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Those are the scenarios I can come up with, that would allow us to make things "safe" by june 2020

1.) A high percentage (60%+) of the population has been sick and herd immunity has been achieved.
(=overloading any health care system)

2.) A Vaccine has been found, tested and mass produced.
(=not before 2021)

3.) An exceptionally well working treatment has been found and made available in high quantities.
(=unlikely)

4.) The infection rate has been hammered down, testing capacities build up into the hundred of thousands/day and your gov. able to put people into personal quarantine instead of whole regions into lock-down
(=not over, but more normal lifestyle).

I have the feeling that people believe that the virus can be somehow exterminated and that it will vanish because we have been mostly sitting in homes for 6 weeks. The reason we are sitting in homes is because the virus is highly infectious, often goes without symptoms for long periods of time and because ~20% of infected people need to be hospitalized.
Even a mass quarantine for months (like china did) will not end a regional epidemic. Reinfections from other countries/regions are unavoidable and even one missed infection in your region will restart everything.

China and South Korea are currently in Scenario 4. Mass testing, infection chain tracking and individual quarantine (after hammering the infection curve down). I hope we can reach that scenario too. But "safe" is not achievable till a vaccine has been released imo.

This year will, most likely, not go back to normal.
 

EdwardTivrusky

See You Hyper-Toxic Computer Cowboy
Dec 8, 2018
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Is there any evidence for Herd Immunity with Covid?
Do we know if it's a one-and-done disease or if you can get it multiple times?
 

ISee

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Is there any evidence for Herd Immunity with Covid?
Do we know if it's a one-and-done disease or if you can get it multiple times?
So far, everything seems to point at that that's the case.

The best indication so far was with three rhesus monkeys that were deliberately infected with Covid 19. One monkey was killed during the experiment to test if the lungs get a similar infection as humans do (it is similar). The other two survived and were weeks later re-infected with a very huge dose of virus (way more than needed to start an infection).
Both monkey didn't get ill and resistet the virus overdose.

Still, there are some reports from China about a total of ~14 people getting reinfected, but it is unclear if they really were virus free in the first place. The virus is moving from the throat to the lungs and the throat can be free, but the lungs can still be massively infected. Those patients were, probably, to early declared virus free.

Source (only in german though, sorry)

German Scientists have also found some patients that overcame covid-19, but had not a significant amount of anti bodys in the first place. Which is strange, because no virus could be found in those patients. It could be that certain cells (e.g. t-cells) eliminated the virus though.
They are currently doing tests with blood plasma of recovered patients. The blood is being given to patients in critical conditions. Results have not been published yet. If it helps, donating blood could be one method to help and also a strong indication that immunity is there.
 

Arsene

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Apr 17, 2019
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Some dude came back from a trip and didn't listen to quarantine orders and got arrested, 2 days later he got arrested again and now hes in jail until the state of emergency is lifted and got fined $30k+ because of it.

But that didn't stop COVID-19 from spreading like a wildfire. We had 1 suspected case last week and now we have 125 confirmed cases. Pretty scary stuff. I ain't leaving my house for the next month. Stupid people are gonna get us all killed.
 

Swenhir

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Apr 18, 2019
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Some dude came back from a trip and didn't listen to quarantine orders and got arrested, 2 days later he got arrested again and now hes in jail until the state of emergency is lifted and got fined $30k+ because of it.

But that didn't stop COVID-19 from spreading like a wildfire. We had 1 suspected case last week and now we have 125 confirmed cases. Pretty scary stuff. I ain't leaving my house for the next month. Stupid people are gonna get us all killed.
30k is ludicrous, what the hell? I mean make no mistake the guy is an ass, but 30k is a life-ending amount of debt for me for instance.
 

Arsene

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30k is ludicrous, what the hell? I mean make no mistake the guy is an ass, but 30k is a life-ending amount of debt for me for instance.
Im in Canada so 30k isnt as extreme as it would be in the US and It was originally much lower. If you get hit with a 7k fine for breaking the law and endangering others then decide to do the exact same thing again less than 48 hours later its your own fault. They warn everyone about this daily and even played emergency broadcasts about it multiple times on our phones, radios and tvs. Our province is growing faster in cases than anywhere else (in Canada) except Quebec. This is serious and people treat it like that guy deserve what they get.

I’m personally not bothered by it. This dude is perfectly okay with spreading a life ending disease around a community of seniors, so I’m perfectly okay with him being hit with a huge fine.
 
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Wok

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30k is ludicrous, what the hell? I mean make no mistake the guy is an ass, but 30k is a life-ending amount of debt for me for instance.
As far as I could read in the news over the past years:
  • if you cannot pay the fine, then nothing happens.
  • if you can pay, I guess something is planned so that it can be paid over a long time, or decreased to be more manageable for the person.
I don't think officials would sell all of your belongings and send ushers after you till you are left naked on the street.

Thankfully, I have no experience with law enforcement or debt collection, but my feeling is that debt collectors are much more of an issue than fines. Debt collectors would harass you till you lose your sanity and are left with nothing, and they would go every possible way, even unlawful ones to achieve their goal: they want to collect the money one way or another.
 
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Swenhir

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As far as I could read in the news over the past years:
  • if you cannot pay the fine, then nothing happens.
  • if you can pay, I guess something is planned so that it can be paid over a long time, or decreased to be more manageable for the person.
I don't think officials would sell all of your belongings and send ushers after you till you are left naked on the street.

Thankfully, I have no experience with law enforcement or debt collection, but my feeling is that debt collectors are much more of an issue than fines. Debt collectors would harass you till you lose your sanity and are left with nothing, and they would go every possible way, even unlawful ones to achieve their goal: they want to collect the money one way or another.
Um, yes, but why even mention the debt collectors?

Either way I strongly disagree with the amount of the fine. It's ridiculous and even though the amount may be spread out across a longer period of time, it comes down to the same amount in the end. I think it's disproportionate and is meant to be an example.

Examples may have an effect, but they aren't democratic or just.
 

NarohDethan

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Apr 6, 2019
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I see that some people are stretching the meaning of ‘social distancing’. It means stay at home as much as possible and don’t go out unless extremely necessary. It doesnt mean go and take a walk in the park as long as everyone is one meter away from you.
 

Arsene

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I see that some people are stretching the meaning of ‘social distancing’. It means stay at home as much as possible and don’t go out unless extremely necessary. It doesnt mean go and take a walk in the park as long as everyone is one meter away from you.
My local government allows walks but only if its around your home and you go alone. Going to the park or downtown is a really bad idea though
 
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texhnolyze

texhnolyze

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I went to the nearby drug store earlier for my son's allergy medicine, and they have bars at the entrance. I had to raise my voice to order the medicine and the pharmacist, wearing gloves and a mask, gave it to me through the bars.

Surreal.

I see that some people are stretching the meaning of ‘social distancing’. It means stay at home as much as possible and don’t go out unless extremely necessary. It doesnt mean go and take a walk in the park as long as everyone is one meter away from you.
Yeah, people are looking for excuses to go out now.
 

Copons

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A couple of weeks ago we learned that our favourite pizza restaurant was starting to deliver on Deliveroo, and we were like HELL YEAH finally we can eat our favourite pizza in town without pants on!
We waited until last Saturday to order it, just to find out that they closed shop when the government ordered the lockdown. 😭
Hopefully they'll reopen when all will be over, because even if Brighton has loads of good pizza, they were so much better than everybody else.

Anyway, we ordered from another pizza place. It was our first delivery order since the lockdown, and Deliveroo told us it would have been a contact-free delivery.
What it means is that the rider buzzed us, I got downstairs, opened the front door, the rider asked me to step back and dropped the whole box on the threshold, took a few steps back himself, letting me grab the pizzas from the box, then waited for me to close the door, to get the box back, and left.

For fuck sake, it felt like we were exchanging some uranium covered heroine.
 

Hektor

I simp, therefore i am
Nov 1, 2018
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Italys deathtoll is getting crazy, 11K by now. Spain at 7K.

The US is certain to be MUCH worse then that given how the Virus was allowed to spread uncontained, the still half-assed measures and their garbage HealthCare System.
 

NarohDethan

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Italys deathtoll is getting crazy, 11K by now. Spain at 7K.

The US is certain to be MUCH worse then that given how the Virus was allowed to spread uncontained, the still half-assed measures and their garbage HealthCare System.
Incredible how the richest country in the world can fuck up this bad. It is almost like capitalism doesn’t work for regular people or something.
 

kio

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Apr 19, 2019
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Incredible how the richest country in the world can fuck up this bad. It is almost like capitalism doesn’t work for regular people or something.
Correction: The country with the richest people and corporations in the world (although technically most of those companies HQs aren't nowhere near the USA, so maybe they can't even be called american companies anymore).
 
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NarohDethan

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Government just declared national emergency with lockdown until April 30th. I’m sure it will extend even more.
 
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texhnolyze

texhnolyze

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Oct 19, 2018
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The result of the first rapid test in my province just released. Out of 22k tests, 300 of people are positive. That's the biggest spike in both tests and confirmed positives in my country so far, and it was only from one province not including Jakarta.
 

Rosenkrantz

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Apr 22, 2019
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Damn, I still have to go to work and seeing how there were 500 new cases just today makes me a bit anxious, add my asthma to the mix and it's not gonna be a pleasant experience.

Stay safe guys!