Discussion Q1 2025 Steam peak CCU prediction thread

edin

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Decided to make this a thread after all. Quoted all (I hope) the messages where folks predicted CCU for Jan/Feb/March games. If you haven't, feel free to do so here. Quote yourself and add more if you need.

I guess I'll go with the following:

Jan 2025
Dynasty Warriors Origins - 25k
Blade Chimera - 1k
Assetto Corsa EVO (early access) - 7k
Tales of Graces f Remastered - 8k
Ender Magnolia (leaving early access) - 4k
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth - 18k
Synduality - 10k
Tails of Iron II - 3k
Virtua Fighter 5 REVO - 8k
Hello Kitty Island Adventure - 3k
Spider-Man 2 - 30k
Citizen Sleeper 2 - 1k

February 2025
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 300K
Civilization 7 - 500K
Trails through Daybreak 2 - 2k
KOF XIII Global Match - 500
Lost Records Bloom & Rage Part 1 - 2k
Like a Dragon Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii - 10k
Yugioh Collection - 5k
Avowed - 20K
Monster Hunter Wilds - 1.2 mill

March 2025
Two Point Museum - 2k
Ever 17/Never 7 - Hope it doesn't get blocked
Suikoden - 5k
DOA Venus Vacation - 2k
Atelier Yumia - 11k
The First Berserker Khazan - 10k
Assassin's Creed Shadows - 20k
Football Manager 2025 - 60k

April 2025
Last of Us: Part 2 - 15K
Fatal Fury City of the Wolves - 10k
The Hundred Line Last Defense Academy - 1k

Some of them are definitely conservative and a few shooting high but we will see.

If this ends up being interesting, I'll do a monthly thread for it. I just included Feb etc since I may as well.
I expect Rebirth to do more than 20k, despite the port. Remake was held back by Sony exclusivity and EGS exclusivity, while Rebirth is only affected by one of those.
Here are my CCU Steam Peak guesses for upcoming notable videogames (notable meaning those that I know about/am potentially interested in):

FF7 Rebirth - 45K
Eternal Strands - 4K
SpiderMan 2 - 52K
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 320K
Civilization 7 - 400K
Avowed - 65K
Monster Hunter Wilds - 850K
Assassin's Creed Shadows - 88K
Last of Us: Part 2 - 42K

It will be interesting to see how right/wrong I was.
Rebirth - 50k
Eternal Strands - :shrugblob:
Spider-Man 2 - 30k
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 250k
Civ 7 - 300k
Avowed - 15k
Monster Hunter Wilds - 1 million
AC Shadows - 35k
TLOU 2 - 15k
 
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edin

edin

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These games are now out. Might be premature, but I'll update on Monday if any changes:

Put my guesses (will include others as well for games that more people guess) followed by rounded actual ccu.

Dynasty Warriors Origins - 25k -> reality = 53k
Blade Chimera - 1k -> reality = 612
Assetto Corsa EVO (early access) - 7k -> reality = 28k
Tales of Graces f Remastered - 8k -> reality = 2.8k

(Jan 18th)
 
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spindoctor

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Ok no position to guess all the smaller games but I'll give my estimates for the more notable ones;

Jan 2025
Dynasty Warriors Origins - 53k ( <-- what an accurate guess holy shit :coffee-blob:)
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth - 28k
Spider-Man 2 - 55k

February 2025
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 350k
Civilization 7 - 480k
Avowed - 24k
Like a Dragon Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii - 22k
Monster Hunter Wilds - 1.35 million

March 2025
Atelier Yumia - 8k
Assassin's Creed Shadows - 55k
Football Manager 2025 - 95k
 
Reason: Forgot Avowed
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Paul

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Looks like I might have been a tad too optimistic about FF7 Rebirth, unless it grows further on the weekend, which is possible.
 
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edin

edin

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Some updates:

Tales of Graces f Remastered - 3.5k
Synduality - 3.6k
Ender Magnolia - 14k (wow)
Tokyo Xtreme Racer (no prediction from us) - 15.8k
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth - 40k

Rebirth was well above what I guessed. Guess the combo of less-demanding port, Deck verification push, actual marketing, 30% discount, and free game bundle really helped.
 
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Paul

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Well well well Rebirth almost reaching my predicted 45K, very nice.
Eternal Strands and Spiderman 2 next.
 
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edin

edin

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Rise of the Ronin surprise announcement and lower price point as well. Curious how it does given just 12 days after MH Wilds.
 
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Paul

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Eternal Strands so far at 653, I expected 4K, but then again I did not know it was going to be on gamepass.
Either way, I do not think this studio is long for this world, unless someone buys them.
 
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spindoctor

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Safe to say that Spiderman's peak has been achieved now. 28k is quite terrible for a high budget, highly reviewed game on Steam in 2025.

It only managed half of what I predicted. I thought that being Sony's biggest IP and the shortest gap between PC and PS5 releases would generate a lot of interest, but apparently not. What I didn't expect was that Sony would virtually stealth launch the game with zero marketing and information. And that the port would have so many reported performance issues. Still, I don't think these two factors dramatically affect launch numbers. There genuinely seems to be an interest deficit on the part of the PC market for the newer Sony releases, and particularly for sequels. I think this is one of the reasons they're walking back the PSN requirement for their games.
 
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texhnolyze

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Spider-Man 2 dropped by roughly half is not that surprising. It's a pattern for cinematic Sony games that have sequel.

God of War - 73k peak
Ragnarok - 35k peak

Horizon ZD - 56k peak
Horizon FW - 40k

Seems like people were more hyped and curious about the first game that got ported. Then they've had their fill or never finished it and ignore the sequel.

Ghost of Yotei in the other hand, will be a different beast, I assume.
 
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Paul

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Seems like people were more hyped and curious about the first game that got ported. Then they've had their fill or never finished it and ignore the sequel.
This, plus the delayed release means all the launch hype and FOMO is gone and people are much more willing to wait for discounts, since they have already been made to wait anyway.
I have Ragnarok and Spidey 2 on my wishlist, want to play it, but happy to wait for them to be cheaper. Whereas if they came out same time as on PS5, I would have likely gotten them on day one.
 

spindoctor

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Since Rise of the Ronin was a late announcement nobody has an estimate for that one. This seems like a difficult one to make any sort of informed guess so I'll just throw out a fluke - 25k.

Very glad to see Kingdom Come 2 getting superlative reviews. This should help them in getting a huge launch and hopefully they go higher than my estimate. Also, this month is already loaded so it was always going to be tough for some games but I think that unless Avowed gets similar reviews, it will suffer even more in the shadow of KCD2. I won't revise my estimate but I could see a -20% swing in the numbers it'll put up.
 
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