Discussion Q1 2025 Steam peak CCU prediction thread

edin

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Decided to make this a thread after all. Quoted all (I hope) the messages where folks predicted CCU for Jan/Feb/March games. If you haven't, feel free to do so here. Quote yourself and add more if you need.

I guess I'll go with the following:

Jan 2025
Dynasty Warriors Origins - 25k
Blade Chimera - 1k
Assetto Corsa EVO (early access) - 7k
Tales of Graces f Remastered - 8k
Ender Magnolia (leaving early access) - 4k
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth - 18k
Synduality - 10k
Tails of Iron II - 3k
Virtua Fighter 5 REVO - 8k
Hello Kitty Island Adventure - 3k
Spider-Man 2 - 30k
Citizen Sleeper 2 - 1k

February 2025
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 300K
Civilization 7 - 500K
Trails through Daybreak 2 - 2k
KOF XIII Global Match - 500
Lost Records Bloom & Rage Part 1 - 2k
Like a Dragon Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii - 10k
Yugioh Collection - 5k
Avowed - 20K
Monster Hunter Wilds - 1.2 mill

March 2025
Two Point Museum - 2k
Ever 17/Never 7 - Hope it doesn't get blocked
Suikoden - 5k
DOA Venus Vacation - 2k
Atelier Yumia - 11k
The First Berserker Khazan - 10k
Assassin's Creed Shadows - 20k
Football Manager 2025 - 60k

April 2025
Last of Us: Part 2 - 15K
Fatal Fury City of the Wolves - 10k
The Hundred Line Last Defense Academy - 1k

Some of them are definitely conservative and a few shooting high but we will see.

If this ends up being interesting, I'll do a monthly thread for it. I just included Feb etc since I may as well.
I expect Rebirth to do more than 20k, despite the port. Remake was held back by Sony exclusivity and EGS exclusivity, while Rebirth is only affected by one of those.
Here are my CCU Steam Peak guesses for upcoming notable videogames (notable meaning those that I know about/am potentially interested in):

FF7 Rebirth - 45K
Eternal Strands - 4K
SpiderMan 2 - 52K
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 320K
Civilization 7 - 400K
Avowed - 65K
Monster Hunter Wilds - 850K
Assassin's Creed Shadows - 88K
Last of Us: Part 2 - 42K

It will be interesting to see how right/wrong I was.
Rebirth - 50k
Eternal Strands - :shrugblob:
Spider-Man 2 - 30k
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 250k
Civ 7 - 300k
Avowed - 15k
Monster Hunter Wilds - 1 million
AC Shadows - 35k
TLOU 2 - 15k
 

Paul

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I like this guessing game, just 5 days until first contender :)

edit:

My guesses vs results:

FF7 Rebirth - 45K / 40,564
Eternal Strands - 4K / 744
SpiderMan 2 - 52K / 28,189
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 320K / 256,206
Civilization 7 - 400K / 80,103
Avowed - 65K / 19,198
Monster Hunter Wilds - 850K / 1,384,608
Rise of the Ronin - 20K / 12,105
Assassin's Creed Shadows - 88K
Atomfall - 14K
Last of Us: Part 2 - 42K
South of Midnight - 12K
Clair Obscur Expedition 33 - 58K
Tempest Rising - 40K
Doom: Dark Ages - 155K
Stellar Blade - 42K
 
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edin

edin

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These games are now out. Might be premature, but I'll update on Monday if any changes:

Put my guesses (will include others as well for games that more people guess) followed by rounded actual ccu.

Dynasty Warriors Origins - 25k -> reality = 53k
Blade Chimera - 1k -> reality = 612
Assetto Corsa EVO (early access) - 7k -> reality = 28k
Tales of Graces f Remastered - 8k -> reality = 2.8k

(Jan 18th)
 
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spindoctor

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Ok no position to guess all the smaller games but I'll give my estimates for the more notable ones;

Jan 2025
Dynasty Warriors Origins - 53k ( <-- what an accurate guess holy shit :coffee-blob:)
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth - 28k
Spider-Man 2 - 55k

February 2025
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 350k
Civilization 7 - 480k
Avowed - 24k
Like a Dragon Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii - 22k
Monster Hunter Wilds - 1.35 million

March 2025
Atelier Yumia - 8k
Assassin's Creed Shadows - 55k
Football Manager 2025 - 95k
 
Reason: Forgot Avowed
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Paul

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Looks like I might have been a tad too optimistic about FF7 Rebirth, unless it grows further on the weekend, which is possible.
 
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edin

edin

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Some updates:

Tales of Graces f Remastered - 3.5k
Synduality - 3.6k
Ender Magnolia - 14k (wow)
Tokyo Xtreme Racer (no prediction from us) - 15.8k
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth - 40k

Rebirth was well above what I guessed. Guess the combo of less-demanding port, Deck verification push, actual marketing, 30% discount, and free game bundle really helped.
 
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Paul

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Well well well Rebirth almost reaching my predicted 45K, very nice.
Eternal Strands and Spiderman 2 next.
 
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edin

edin

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Rise of the Ronin surprise announcement and lower price point as well. Curious how it does given just 12 days after MH Wilds.
 
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Paul

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Eternal Strands so far at 653, I expected 4K, but then again I did not know it was going to be on gamepass.
Either way, I do not think this studio is long for this world, unless someone buys them.
 
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spindoctor

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Safe to say that Spiderman's peak has been achieved now. 28k is quite terrible for a high budget, highly reviewed game on Steam in 2025.

It only managed half of what I predicted. I thought that being Sony's biggest IP and the shortest gap between PC and PS5 releases would generate a lot of interest, but apparently not. What I didn't expect was that Sony would virtually stealth launch the game with zero marketing and information. And that the port would have so many reported performance issues. Still, I don't think these two factors dramatically affect launch numbers. There genuinely seems to be an interest deficit on the part of the PC market for the newer Sony releases, and particularly for sequels. I think this is one of the reasons they're walking back the PSN requirement for their games.
 
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texhnolyze

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Spider-Man 2 dropped by roughly half is not that surprising. It's a pattern for cinematic Sony games that have sequel.

God of War - 73k peak
Ragnarok - 35k peak

Horizon ZD - 56k peak
Horizon FW - 40k

Seems like people were more hyped and curious about the first game that got ported. Then they've had their fill or never finished it and ignore the sequel.

Ghost of Yotei in the other hand, will be a different beast, I assume.
 

Paul

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Seems like people were more hyped and curious about the first game that got ported. Then they've had their fill or never finished it and ignore the sequel.
This, plus the delayed release means all the launch hype and FOMO is gone and people are much more willing to wait for discounts, since they have already been made to wait anyway.
I have Ragnarok and Spidey 2 on my wishlist, want to play it, but happy to wait for them to be cheaper. Whereas if they came out same time as on PS5, I would have likely gotten them on day one.
 

spindoctor

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Since Rise of the Ronin was a late announcement nobody has an estimate for that one. This seems like a difficult one to make any sort of informed guess so I'll just throw out a fluke - 25k.

Very glad to see Kingdom Come 2 getting superlative reviews. This should help them in getting a huge launch and hopefully they go higher than my estimate. Also, this month is already loaded so it was always going to be tough for some games but I think that unless Avowed gets similar reviews, it will suffer even more in the shadow of KCD2. I won't revise my estimate but I could see a -20% swing in the numbers it'll put up.
 
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Paul

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Hmmm, KCD2 achieved 256K, so a bit short of my estimate, but Arc's prediction was pretty spot on.
But, overtaking Space Marine 2 and Dragon's Dogma 2 is nothing to scoff at.

Still, I wonder what the numbers would be like if there were 1.4 billion Czechs like there are Chinese. Wukong would be beaten :sneaky:

Anyway, Civ7 and Avowed next.
 
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Arc

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I was pretty spot on with Spidey 2 and KCD 2. I already know my Civ 7 prediction is going to be trash because of the bad reviews.
 
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spindoctor

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Yeah KCD2 has peaked now. Quite a bit lower than I had guessed. For some reason I had assumed this one was going to blow up and to be fair, it did, just not as much as I thought it would. Still a great result for them.

Civ 7 is in trouble. The staggered launch always hurts CCU numbers but the bad word of mouth is really going to hit them hard. The game isn't bad but it's definitely unfinished/unpolished and the Steam reviews are reflecting that. They also held back basic content to sell separately as DLC starting from next month which is annoying. My prediction (480k) was wildly optimistic and they'll be lucky to reach even half of what I thought they would. Closer to a quarter is what I think will happen now.

Also get your Rise of the Ronin guesses in!
 

Arc

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Guessing 9k for RotR. It's a late port for a game that didn't set the world on fire the first time and coming out a week and a half before AC Shadows.
 
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edin

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My original prediction/guesses:

Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 300K
Civilization 7 - 500K

Reality:

Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 - 256k
Civilization 7 - 80k

:ripblob:


Trails next.
 
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spindoctor

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Civ7 doing only 80K is bizzare, even with bad reviews and staggered release I would expect at least 150K.
I was almost right with my Civ 7 prediction of 480k if we just ignore the tiny little 4.

Like I said, word of mouth is really hurting this game. It was about 65k in early access and then only went up to 80k after wide release. I still think the game is fun but they do deserve this for shipping it unfinished and chopping it up to sell content later.
 
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Arc

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I was almost right with my Civ 7 prediction of 480k if we just ignore the tiny little 4.

Like I said, word of mouth is really hurting this game. It was about 65k in early access and then only went up to 80k after wide release. I still think the game is fun but they do deserve this for shipping it unfinished and chopping it up to sell content later.
Just to show how bad Civ 7's WOM is (all are out of 5 stars):

3.5 on EGS
3.0 on PS5
2.6 on Xbox

This is a giant miss by Firaxis and I don't think the meme of "oh it'll get good after a few expansions" will happen up this time.
 
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Paul

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I see Avowed also has the dumb staggered release and the reviews I watched completely drained me of enthusiasm. I have a feeling it is unlikely to get to my 65K estimate.
 

Nebulys

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Just to show how bad Civ 7's WOM is (all are out of 5 stars):

3.5 on EGS
3.0 on PS5
2.6 on Xbox

This is a giant miss by Firaxis and I don't think the meme of "oh it'll get good after a few expansions" will happen up this time.
Yeah, 100% agree with this. I quite vividly remember the Civilization V and VI launches and, while those games needed work, it was hard to argue they weren’t diamonds in the rough.

VII is fundamentally busted. This isn’t fixable, short of making the game again from scratch.

I’ll be surprised if 2K takes this on the chin and puts in significantly more work on this, to the point that we get expansion packs.

I reckon a skeleton crew does 18 months of DLC to try and taper any fan outrage for prematurely cutting the game loose, while most of the team has a bit of a retrospective, analyses what’s gone wrong and then gets to work on VIII.
 
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spindoctor

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I reckon a skeleton crew does 18 months of DLC
80k CCU but you reckon it's failure on the same level as Suicide Squad? This is the kind of hyberbolic negativity that will be the real test for Firaxis. The game can be fixed but this level of discourse is nearly impossible to counter.
 

Nebulys

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80k CCU but you reckon it's failure on the same level as Suicide Squad? This is the kind of hyberbolic negativity that will be the real test for Firaxis. The game can be fixed but this level of discourse is nearly impossible to counter.
Of course it’s not Suicide Squad bad, but last time I saw sales figures, VI sailed well past 10m.

I don’t think for a second VII will get anywhere near that.

And I wouldn’t call the negativity “hyperbolic” when the game is in a far worse state than any Civ that’s come before it at launch. This is uncharted territory for the series.
 
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spindoctor

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The reason I mentioned Suicide Squad is because that is the last AAA game that got the "skeleton crew of devs completing obligatory dlc" treatment. That is the level of failure that has to occur for that outcome. That is the benchmark you are applying on Civ 7. Can you think of any other game that got an 80k CCU on Steam that got that treatment?

That is why I'm calling your statement, and the general sentiment around this game, hyperbolic. 80k CCU, with many being expensive edition purchases, means the game is close to or has reached the revenue of a million copies sold on Steam alone in one week. Sales would have to fall off catastrophically for this to tank in the way you think it will.

But this is the level of negativity that 2k has to deal with now. Looking at the Steam reviews with filters is interesting. Reviews where the person has played less than 1 hour are overwhelmingly negative (13% of about 1200). Reviews between 1 and 10 hours played are mixed (54% from 6600). Reviews with 10+ hours played are also mixed, but higher (68% of 6000). So 55%-70% of the people who are actually playing the game seem to think it's okay. I think that's pretty fair given the issues that the game actually has. The 13%, unless they are having technical issues and crashes, don't know what the fuck they're talking about quite honestly. Nobody can review Civilization with 40 turns played. But the last 15 years of gaming discourse have demonstrated that those 13% will take it upon themselves to spam forums and social media about how the game is a complete failure and beyond redemption and will have an outsized presence while talking about it online. The other 85% of players will either continue playing the game if they enjoy it or move on to something else if they don't. The image of the game online will be painted by those who have an axe to grind for whatever reason. This is where 2k needs some sort of crisis PR before it gets out of hand. I think of the simplest things they can do is to say that all the DLC in the first 3-6 months will be given free to all players as a mea culpa while they work on fixing things. And people who paid extra for it can be given something else like the first expansion free or something. This will buy them some goodwill and also fix the real problem of them cutting out content that was in the game on day 1 (more or less) to sell back to people later. Another thing they should consider is offering the final age as a free update in the future. I'm almost certain that will be an expansion feature but having it patched into the game for free will be much appreciated. And of course a good, solid roadmap of when they are going to fix the most glaring issues. Yesterday I founded a religion and I couldn't figure out how to actually name it without checking online because of the shitty iconography in the incredibly stupid UI. These are the kinds of things they need to commit to fixing ASAP.

I don't know if even this is good enough to right the ship but it's something they really should do.
 
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Nebulys

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All I’ll say is if seasoned Civ veterans are starting the game and dropping it in a matter of hours, that’s pretty damning in my view.

You can say that you can’t judge a game like this after a few hours and in principle, I agree. But a lot of these negative reviews will be from users who have put 500+ hours into every Civ game that came before.

They know how this shit worked with previous entries and still chose to bounce.

I’ve not put loads of time into VII. I don’t particularly want to either. That’s because it sucks and I have better things to do with my time. And my dislike of it goes past the UI, which is only surface level terrible. My main gripe is the game feels soulless, like everything that made Civ games engaging and fun has been stripped out.

All the wonderful, emergent storytelling? Gone.

Leaders with personality tied to their Civ’s AI and gameplay style? Gone.

Building an empire to last the test of time? This game has made a joke of it.

Civ has always been a game about “number go up” in some fashion, but it always found fun ways to communicate/convey that. Civ VII is just a calculator that makes things on a map happen, and to hide the fact that the game has no personality it has a shitty UI that makes the under-the-hood stuff invisible.

When they fix the UI, the ugly truth of what this game is will be laid bare.

So in my view, a top to bottom remake is the only way to fix this. That’s why I think they’ll pivot to VIII more quickly. Maybe 18 months is a bit hyperbolic, but do I see Civ fans putting up with this for the next decade? Probably not.
 
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edin

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Next set of releases (as of Feb 27 2025):

Name - prediction -> reality
Trails through Daybreak 2 - 2k -> 1.8k (nearly got it)
KOF XIII Global Match - 500 -> 226 (rip)
Lost Records Bloom & Rage Part 1 - 2k -> 2k (wow)
Like a Dragon Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii - 10k -> 22k (amazing for yakuza)
Avowed - 20K -> 19k (close)

Onto Yugioh and MH Wilds next. Let's see.
 
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edin

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1.38 mill now for Wilds. Prob the peak for now.
 
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Paul

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The MHW number is disgusting. I comprehensively do not understand the hype, nor do I care to.
 
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Arc

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Gonna toss out a few March predictions:

Split Fiction - 50k
Fragpunk - 100k
Suikoden 1 + 2 - 3k
Assassin's Creed Shadows - 60k (revised up from 35k)
Killing Floor 3 - 40k
The First Berserker Khazan - 25k
Inzoi - 75k

The MHW number is disgusting. I comprehensively do not understand the hype, nor do I care to.
Bonking monsters for hundreds of hours so you can bonk them a bit faster is fun. There are also a bunch of unique ways to bonk said monsters.
 
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edin

edin

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Rip the oscars. Grats to Split Fiction. I played a bit and it rules. Likely going to do one playthrough on Deck and one on PS5.

No clue what to expect from Ronin. The game is more demanding than you'd expect given the visuals since it was their first open world etc. The timing will defo hurt. I really like the game so I hope it does well. I expect 10k for it tops sadly.

Some more results:
game - prediction/guess - reality
Two Point Museum - 2k - 20k (wow)
Ever 17/Never 7 - Hope it doesn't get blocked (lol) - 121 + 31
Suikoden - 5k - 5k
DOA Venus Vacation - 2k - waiting for lashman to gift it.
 
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Paul

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Added some more estimates

Atomfall - 14K
Last of Us: Part 2 - 42K
South of Midnight - 12K
Clair Obscur Expedition 33 - 58K
Tempest Rising - 40K
Doom: Dark Ages - 155K
Stellar Blade - 42K

Looking at my results so far, I am too optimistic, but I can't help it, so these are probably also gonna be higher than reality :blobevening:
 
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