I'm not quite that negative on Obsidian.
Pillars of Eternity 1 and 2 are some of my favourite CRPGs of all time (and I'd consider both better than any of the inXile Wasteland games), and Pentiment was also really good for what it is.
That said, what I've seen of Avowed doesn't look particularly enticing, and I might share some of your pessimism when it comes to new high-budget RPG projects out of Obsidian.
I found PoE to be a very competent game, but the setting and writing completely failed to grab me. I approached the game like 3 times and didn't manage to go beyond the ~10 hours mark every time. That said, T:ToN failed to grab me as well, as did Wasteland 2, so it's not like I think inXile is spotless. Enjoyed what I've played of Wasteland 3, will have to get back to it at some point.
The best output of "nu-Obsidian" was imo Tyranny. It's a shame the money clearly ran out before they could finish it properly. I enjoyed the writing in that immensely, though hated the initially forced ending that went against the game's premise (they later patched a fitting alternative). I can only hope it was forced on launch due to time/money constrains and not by design.
We also can't talk nu-Obsidian without mentioning The Outer Worlds, which is much closer to what Avowed aims to be than an isometric cRPG. And boy, that game was so unimpressive I that I'm glad I had GP sub from controller purchase, so I didn't waste money on it.
Pentiment, I don't judge. Sawyer has his problems (balance obsession), but they're irrelevant in a game like Pentiment. It might be actually good, but it's pretty much Sawyer's solo endeavour, and he wasn't working on Avowed, so it's irrelevant in the grand scheme of Obsidian.
Ultimately, I'd be extremely happy if Avowed turned out to be not even great, but a good RPG, since I'm always hungry for one, but I just can't see it realistically.